2018 Northern Norway investment survey

There is plenty of willingness to invest in Northern Norway and Svalbard. We have identified 813 projects that together with residential investment represent NOK 742.6 billion of investment over the coming eight years (2018–2026).

This is NOK 7.6 billion more than last year’s estimate for the same period. Big investments are now expected on the continental shelf over the coming years. On the mainland, the biggest areas of investment in the region will be residential housing, followed by public buildings and infrastructure.

The biggest share of investment over the coming years, totalling NOK 310 billion, will go to the continental shelf. This mainly relates to the operation, modification and development of satellite fields, as well as planned investment in the new fields of Johan Castberg, Alta/Gohta, Wisting and Barents Sea South-East. The figure also includes planned investment in conjunction with the new oil terminal at Veidnes. Annual investment in the operation and development of these projects is estimated at NOK 50 billion per year until 2020, rising to NOK 70 billion per year thereafter.

About the investment survey

This investment survey gives an overview of planned investments in Northern Norway up to and including the year 2026. The survey includes both confirmed and planned projects. Around 46 percent of the investment projects have either already been started or are fully financed/confirmed.

The survey is carried out for us each year for the Business Cycle Barometer for Northern Norway, by Bedriftskompetanse AS and Menon Economics AS. This is the fifth annual edition.Next edition is due November 2019.

The survey is extensive and detailed. This year we have included 813 investment projects in the region, as well as estimated investment in the housing and municipal sectors. Nevertheless, there are large numbers of business investments that don’t get included. In our experience, they are all small projects that don’t have a big impact on the overall figures.

The survey particularly identifies public investment, but in some areas a large proportion of private investment is also covered. New this year is that we have used data from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) on licenses awarded to estimate investment in wind farms and hydroelectric power. Information about public investments is taken from central government, county and municipal investment budgets.

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Foto av Susanne Hætta for kbnn:

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Investeringer 2018 - kartleggingen er utført i perioden september oktober

Svalbard

Continental shelf

East Finnmark

West Finnmark

Tromsø, Central and Northern Troms

Hålogaland

Bodø region

Helgeland

On the mainland, residential investment will help to maintain the level of investment. We estimate that NOK 192 billion will be invested in residential housing in Northern Norway over the forecast period. Over 47 percent of residential investment will be spent in the county of Nordland, followed by the Tromsø area with 38 percent.

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Big investments in airports over the coming years

NOK 58.6 billion will be invested in airports, roads, railways and other infrastructure in Northern Norway between now and 2026. New airports are planned at Bodø, Rana, Lofoten and Hammerfest, as well as a new military air base at Evenes. The single biggest project is the new airport at Bodø, which is budgeted to cost NOK 5 billion. The project involves moving the current runway 900 metres south in order to create space to build a completely new town district where the current runway is.

Investment in road and rail

Several major road projects are planned for the coming years. The biggest ones include the Tjeldsund–Gullesfjordbotn–Langvassbukt stretch of the E10 highway, the E6 in Sørfold Municipality and the E6 in South Helgeland. The Ofoten Line lacks capacity, so work is being done to identify a route for a double track and to draw up a strategy to increase its capacity.

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Strong investment growth in the electric power industry

The increase in the investment forecast since 2017 reflects the identification of big planned investments in wind farms, hydroelectric power and a new transmission line. Almost 50 percent of this investment will be in Finnmark, with the biggest share going towards wind power.

Investment by sector: public, private and continental shelf

Investment projects in planning, confirmed or under construction

Investment trends 2015–2018

The level of investment identified by the survey has only varied slightly over the period 2015–2018, with the exception of 2016, when a complete review was carried out of expected oil and gas investments in the Barents Sea, leading to their inclusion in the survey. Estimated residential investment fell slightly from 2017 to 2018 after several years when there were many development projects. Conversely, investment in public buildings and electric power is growing.

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